السيناريوهات الأمريكية لوحدة أو إنفصال السودان - مقالي الأول في سلسلة ستنشر في ذي سيتيزن السودانية

Unity of Sudan in the American Strategy

There are many sources and references that can lead us to good discussions to find out the real American goals and targets related to all Sudanese issues, specially the unity of Sudan.

The base of the discussions is more important than these references, because it helps us to know under which category in American foreign policy the decisions makers will discuss and make their homework for this mission.

Three main categories of strategic plans are highly linked with the topic: Unity of Sudan.

1- American Policy in Africa

2- New Middle East Plan

3- The Campaign against terrorism



Under each category there are dozens of researches and studies and plans, most of them from non-governmental American Centers and think tanks. The process needs to classify all these works, absorb them, make good analysis, and then summarize them.

After this process and according to primary analysis I can say there is no one scenario for the American policy in this matter. There is no list of priority of Scenarios.

There are three active options, each one of them has number of determiners. The relation between the option and the determiners rules the priority of the option among others. These open scenarios are not really open! In each scenario there are conditions for the validity of the scenario. (Validity for the priority).

The scenarios are:

1- Unity of Sudan under Semi-Secular system in North and Extremist Secular in South. (the level of Secularism in North must be changeable and completely manipulated by USA, now there is need for cooperative Islamic regime in the region)

2- Separation: North Sudan is a part of New Middle East, Sudan must engage in the process of normalization (naturalization) in Middle East. (there is need for continuous pressures to make real changes in the regime, these pressures include conflicts)

3- To postpone the problem for other years, under system of Confederation. (The application is the proposal of the Sudanese Union). The other two scenarios will be active for the other period.



I will begin my discussion from the category of (the campaign against terrorism). In this category the homework will be based on:

Muslim World Outreach Strategy (the Department of the State), RAND reports and other sources.

The main source to discuss the African category is APAP reports, (African Policy Advisory Panel).